Donald Trump has clinched the Electoral College with the necessary 270 votes, marking his return to the White House. With provisional counts showing him ahead of Democratic rival Kamala Harris by nearly five million votes, Trump is also projected to win the popular vote.
The Republicans have secured a majority in the Senate, though the House of Representatives is still undecided.
Trump’s comeback defied the odds, succeeding despite his legal battles, the end of federal abortion rights, and divisive campaign rhetoric.
Harris’s defeat to Trump mirrors Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, as another historic female candidate fell short. Trump managed to pull together a more diverse voter base than any recent Republican nominee, despite a campaign charged with rhetoric against immigrants.
As U.S. influence in Africa dwindles, with Russia strengthening military ties and China expanding its economic reach, the future of U.S.-Africa relations becomes a pressing question.
Trump’s first term saw the launch of Prosper Africa, aimed at supporting American businesses in the region. However, controversial comments also strained relations with some African nations. Analysts agree that, given Africa’s young and growing population, the next U.S. president needs to make meaningful connections with the continent.
Climate concerns
Donald Trump’s election win brings fresh doubts to global climate efforts. The president-elect, who has repeatedly dismissed climate change as a “scam,” promises to roll back federal initiatives aimed at cutting emissions. Instead, he plans to ramp up oil production, calling the U.S. a powerhouse of “liquid gold” resources.
This shift has triggered international concerns, especially in Africa. Seychelles President Wavel Ramkalawan expressed his worries, noting Trump’s track record from his first term when the U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement.
Ramkalawan is particularly concerned about the future of the UN-backed vulnerability index, which aids small island nations in accessing funds to combat climate impacts. The uncertainty over upcoming climate policies leaves African nations, especially vulnerable ones, with pressing questions about future support.
With the U.S. potentially stepping back, eyes turn to the EU to lead the charge. Experts caution that while Trump’s approach may delay climate action, international momentum remains strong.
Other nations are unlikely to slow their emissions-cutting efforts, aware that this also helps safeguard their economies. Some even suggest that if the U.S. lags on climate progress, it could face economic consequences, including potential carbon tariffs.
Trade
Trump’s “America First” stance could shake up U.S.-Africa trade and investment. During Biden’s administration, the U.S. invested more than $22 billion in Africa, but Trump’s track record suggests a different approach. His protectionist policies, including a proposed universal 10 percent tariff on all imported goods, would likely make African exports less competitive in the U.S.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has allowed African countries to export to the U.S. tax-free since 2000, faces an uncertain future. Trump previously indicated he wouldn’t renew the policy, set to expire in 2025, which raises concerns for African exporters.
However, Trump’s administration did introduce initiatives like Prosper Africa and the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to counter China’s influence in Africa. These programs help U.S. companies invest in Africa and have funneled billions into development projects.
Given China’s ongoing economic foothold in Africa, Trump may still find value in maintaining these programs, even if he reshapes their focus.
Aid
The U.S. provides a significant portion of aid to Africa, contributing nearly $3.7 billion this past year. However, during his previous administration, Trump pushed to reduce foreign aid globally, although Congress ultimately blocked these cuts due to bipartisan support for such assistance.
If these reductions had gone through, essential U.S. programs supporting health, democracy, and security in Africa could have been severely impacted, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Global health experts are now watching closely, as Trump may again attempt to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO). As the largest financial backer of the U.N. health agency, a U.S. exit would heavily impact global health efforts.
Another concern is the future of PEPFAR, a long-standing U.S. initiative that has invested billions to combat HIV in Africa. Recently, some Republican lawmakers argued that PEPFAR indirectly funds abortion services, leading to a temporary extension only through March.
With Trump’s strong anti-abortion stance, he may decide not to renew the program, raising fears for the continuity of critical HIV prevention and treatment support across Africa.
Immigration
Trump’s stance on immigration remains firm. During his 2024 campaign, he pledged to deport a million undocumented immigrants. This matters to Africa, as migrant numbers from the continent at the U.S.-Mexico border have surged—from around 13,000 in 2022 to 58,000 in 2023, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Many of these migrants say they’re fleeing conflict, persecution, and poverty.
This wouldn’t be Trump’s first immigration crackdown. His prior term saw restrictions targeting African countries like Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan, and Tanzania.
Security and conflict
Since Trump left office, Russia has expanded its presence in Africa, offering military aid to countries battling extremists, like Mali, Niger, Central African Republic and Burkina Faso. The U.S., historically wary of Russian influence, may reconsider its role in African security under Trump.
While some speculate about Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he did support Nigeria’s fight against Boko Haram, providing Tucano jets that strengthened the country’s defenses after years of blocked military aid.
Sudan’s civil war, ongoing for 18 months and causing widespread loss of life, also raises questions about potential U.S. engagement under Trump.
